critical high likelihood
R-001: Financial viability and restructuring economics
Revenue, margin, burn, cash, debt, runway, and restructuring economics are not public, and recent releases emphasize commercialization reset, early monetization, and profitability.
Diligence request: Require audited statements, monthly management accounts, cash/debt/runway, financing and succession documents, and a board-approved forecast before underwriting.
high high likelihood
R-002: Manufacturing scale and unit-cost risk
Spiber has disclosed mass-production infrastructure and product forms, but public sources do not reveal capacity, utilization, yield, cost per kilogram, quality, capex, or uptime.
Diligence request: Run plant diligence on capacity, yield, cost, uptime, quality, capex, feedstock, utilities, and partner-manufacturer SLAs.
high medium likelihood
R-003: Customer traction and concentration economics
Public collaborations are numerous, but top customer revenue, repeat purchases, sell-through, contract commitments, and concentration are not public.
Diligence request: Request top-customer revenue, reference calls, contracts, purchase orders, reorder history, margins, and pipeline by account.
high medium likelihood
R-006: Technical bottlenecks and R&D execution
Spiber's 2026 release explicitly assigns founders to resolve technical challenges and accelerate commercialization, implying key technical work remains.
Diligence request: Request technical risk register, R&D roadmap, stage gates, founder retention terms, failure-mode analysis, and customer qualification data.
high medium likelihood
R-007: Leadership transition and business succession risk
New Spiber launched with a new CEO and succession from Former Spiber except certain operations; this may affect assets, liabilities, people, contracts, governance, and IP.
Diligence request: Review succession documents, excluded assets, consents, retention, governance, board minutes, and 100-day execution KPIs.
high unknown likelihood
R-008: Legal, IP, regulatory, insurance, and contract gaps
Material legal records, docket searches, IP assignments, insurance schedules, material contracts, and regulatory correspondence are not publicly verifiable.
Diligence request: Obtain counsel letters, docket searches, IP schedules, assignments, FTO opinions, insurance schedules, material contracts, and regulator correspondence.
medium high likelihood
R-004: Competitive substitutes and pricing pressure
Spiber competes with bio-based materials peers and incumbent fibers that may offer lower price, existing supply chains, or adequate sustainability narratives.
Diligence request: Benchmark price, performance, sustainability claims, supply assurance, brand willingness to pay, and win/loss data against substitutes.
medium medium likelihood
R-005: Supply-chain, feedstock, and cross-border operating dependency
Feedstock sourcing, Thailand operations, partner textile conversion, renewable-electricity claims, and cross-border logistics may affect continuity and margins.
Diligence request: Review supplier agreements, qualified alternatives, input price exposure, plant permits, tax/customs, logistics, and business continuity plans.