high medium likelihood
R-001: Licensing, NEPA, and regulatory approvals incomplete
DOE final authorization/readiness review, NRC R-50 license completion, NEPA/site approvals, and commercial operating pathways remain open.
Diligence request: Run specialist regulatory diligence on DOE, NRC, DAF/DIU, NEPA, state/local, and operating-license critical paths.
high medium likelihood
R-002: First-of-a-kind reactor and factory execution risk
Kaleidos, DOME testing, R-50 production, and 2028 deployment require successful engineering, QA, manufacturing, safety, and operations execution.
Diligence request: Review design reviews, test plans/results, QA program, manufacturing readiness, FMEA, and integrated master schedule.
high medium likelihood
R-004: Valuation and preference stack may diverge from public headline
The $1.8B headline does not disclose liquidation preferences, anti-dilution, debt, warrants, option pool, or milestone tranching.
Diligence request: Review financing documents, cap table, board approvals, option ledger, debt/warrants, and strategic side letters.
high medium likelihood
R-005: Product performance and lifecycle claims not independently proven
Public claims about output, cooling, fuel, deployment speed, lifetime, and refueling require independent technical validation.
Diligence request: Review test reports, safety analysis, O&M model, service manuals, reliability data, and customer acceptance tests.
high medium likelihood
R-006: Nuclear safety, environmental, insurance, and liability exposure
Special nuclear material, site deployment, transport, waste, worker safety, public acceptance, and product liability create material legal exposure.
Diligence request: Review insurance, indemnities, safety and emergency plans, environmental permits, NEPA record, and liability reserves.
high medium likelihood
R-008: HALEU, TRISO, and nuclear-grade supply chain dependencies
Fuel, enrichment, graphite, pressure vessels, qualified suppliers, and export controls are critical dependencies.
Diligence request: Review fuel/enrichment contracts, supplier quality, alternates, export controls, delivery commitments, and inventory buffers.
high medium likelihood
R-009: Export-control, hazardous-material, and supplier compliance burden
Supplier terms reference ITAR/EAR and hazardous/restricted materials; compliance failures could disrupt programs or trigger liability.
Diligence request: Review export classifications, supplier compliance program, training, audits, and restricted-material handling procedures.
high unknown likelihood
R-003: Financial quality, runway, and unit economics are opaque
Public funding does not reveal burn, remaining cash, reactor cost, gross margin, capex, revenue recognition, or deployment profitability.
Diligence request: Obtain audited financials, monthly management accounts, runway, capex budget, unit economics, and customer revenue model.