high high likelihood
R-001: Multi-jurisdiction regulatory exposure
Crypto exchange activity faces licensing, AML, sanctions, derivatives and consumer-protection scrutiny across jurisdictions.
Diligence request: Validate licenses, investigations, enforcement correspondence, restricted-market controls and legal opinions.
high high likelihood
R-003: Private valuation and financial opacity
The $25B public valuation signal is not supported by public revenue, profitability, cash, debt, token exposure or trading-volume quality.
Diligence request: Request financing documents, cap table, revenue bridge, trading-fee cohort and cash/debt schedules.
high medium likelihood
R-002: Reserve and custody assurance gap
Proof of reserves is useful but does not replace audited financials, liabilities, customer segmentation, custody controls or market-risk analysis.
Diligence request: Request audited financials, reserve attestations, wallet controls, insurance, segregation, liabilities and SOC reports.
high unknown likelihood
R-007: Customer concentration and retention opacity
Public traction signals do not reveal top-customer revenue, churn, NRR, renewals or contract terms.
Diligence request: Request top-customer schedule, contract summaries, churn/NRR cohorts and references.
medium high likelihood
R-004: High competition and trading-volume cyclicality
Public category positioning implies competition from incumbents and specialist startups; win/loss evidence is not public.
Diligence request: Request competitor benchmarks, win/loss, pricing pressure and buyer references.
medium medium likelihood
R-005: Security, market-maker and liquidity dependencies
Public materials imply important third-party, supplier or platform dependencies that are not disclosed in contract-level detail.
Diligence request: Request supplier contracts, concentration schedule, service-level history and exit plans.
medium medium likelihood
R-006: Reputational history from exchange incidents
Public leadership roster does not disclose retention, incentives, turnover or succession risk.
Diligence request: Request org chart, retention metrics, employment agreements and compensation plans.
medium unknown likelihood
R-008: Legal/IP/contract diligence gap
Public web review is not a full docket, contract, insurance, privacy, employment or IP search.
Diligence request: Have counsel complete litigation, regulatory, IP, privacy and material-contract review.