Improbable Public-Source Startup Diligence Report
The attractive thesis is a well-capitalized, technically deep UK venture builder with major investors, public partner logos, and optionality in metaverse/Web3/AI ventures. The key diligence test is whether parent-company economics, ownership, recurring revenue, and IP rights justify the stale $3.36B unicorn valuation after FY2024 revenue fell to £10M.
Improbable Public-Source Startup Diligence Report
Improbable is an active UK private unicorn by public-screen criteria, but the diligence posture is high-risk/track rather than invest-ready because the business model has pivoted from large operating revenue to a venture-builder model with opaque venture economics, customer concentration, cap table, and legal/IP exposure.
Company-stated revenue changed from £78M FY2022 to £66M FY2023 to £10M FY2024 consolidated revenue, making trend quality and forecastability the top diligence issue.
Diligence request: Request full audited statements, revenue bridge, segment/customer revenue, one-off items, and board-approved forecast.
Core diligence schedules—full statements, customer revenues, backlog, AR aging, projections, accounting policies, cap table, insurance—are not publicly verifiable.
Diligence request: Do not rely on public screen for investment decision; require full data room and management Q&A.
Strategy and public milestones increasingly depend on AI/Web3/metaverse ventures and Somnia ecosystem outcomes, which may be volatile and hard to monetize.
Diligence request: Request venture-level economics, ownership, token exposure, adoption metrics, and downside scenario plan.
Named logos do not disclose revenue, renewals, concentration, or contract terms; FY2024 revenue base is small enough that single relationships could be material.
Diligence request: Request top-customer schedule, contracts, renewal history, references, and related-party revenue reconciliation.
Performance claims around virtual worlds, messaging scale, blockchain throughput, and Somnia adoption need independent verification and cost analysis.
Diligence request: Run technical diligence: architecture review, benchmarks, security audits, uptime/cost telemetry, roadmap review.
Public sources do not resolve litigation, regulator, IP ownership, OSS, privacy, cyber, cloud, or Web3 compliance risks.
Diligence request: Obtain counsel diligence, IP schedule, OSS scan, data/security reports, regulator correspondence, and Web3 compliance memo.
The $3.36B unicorn valuation dates to 2017 public market-database tracking and may not reflect current pivoted economics or investor marks.
Diligence request: Request latest valuation, investor marks, 409A/fair-value work, and secondary pricing.
PSC records show founder and SVF Holdings control signals, while large historical funding implies potential preferences, veto rights, and liquidation complexity.
Diligence request: Request cap table, shareholder agreements, board minutes, investor rights, reserved matters, and option plan.
Improbable passes private-unicorn eligibility screens, but public financial evidence shows a major business-model pivot with sharply lower FY2024 consolidated revenue and missing private operating schedules.
partially verified confidence: medium
Public sources provide high-level 2022-2024 revenue/cash/profit signals and Companies House filing cadence, but not full statements, footnotes, backlog, or AR aging.
| Period | Revenue GBP m | Profit or loss GBP m | Cash GBP m | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 78 | -19 | 140 | Pre-pivot company update; ~650 employees reported. |
| FY2023 | 66 | 11 | 185 | Company reports profitability and strong liquidity. |
| FY2024 | 10 | — | 162.8 | First financial year of venture-builder model; revenue base reset. |
Revenue comparability is limited by business-model change and lack of full account extraction.
Do not compare periods without explaining the business-model change.
partially verified confidence: medium
No three-year model was public. Company disclosed FY2024 cash and a 2025 plan to invest $17M in 10+ ventures, but projected revenue, margins, capex, working capital, and financing assumptions remain private.
| Pipeline item | Evidence |
|---|---|
| Multiple ventures per year | 2025 venture-builder update. |
| 10+ venture investments | Company update. |
| Somnia | FY2024/2025 update. |
| AI transformation / simulation ventures | Company-owned product list. |
Counts are not necessarily contradictory if definitions differ.
partially verified confidence: medium
CB Insights and Companies House confirm unicorn/public-control and charge signals, but shares outstanding, options/warrants/notes, debt balances, and off-balance-sheet obligations are not public.
| Item | Public evidence | Status | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private-unicorn screen | CB Insights lists Improbable at $3.36B, unicorn date 2017-05-11; Companies House active private limited. | verified | Eligible for private-unicorn diligence, with valuation-staleness risk. |
| Funding total | CB profile reports $865.95M total raised and $112.02M latest round. | partially_verified | Request primary financing history and cap table. |
| Major historical round | Company says 2017 $502M funding led by SoftBank. | partially_verified | SoftBank/PSC role may affect control and exit rights. |
| Charges | HSBC Innovation Banking charges registered in 2024; one outstanding in reviewed register. | verified | Need debt schedule, covenants, collateral, and consent requirements. |
not publicly verifiable confidence: low
Tax positions, revenue-recognition policies, venture/intercompany accounting, and full financing history are not public; only summary funding milestones and filing status were verified.
Improbable now presents a portfolio/venture-builder product surface around metaverse, Web3, AI transformation, and deep technical infrastructure; public evidence supports breadth but not economics or product-market fit.
partially verified confidence: medium
Public pages describe venture-building services, MSquared/virtual worlds, Somnia/Web3 infrastructure, simulation ventures, Thanos, and MML. Growth, share, cost structure, and product profitability are not public.
| Surface | Evidence | Diligence question |
|---|---|---|
| Venture builder | 17 ventures including 7 exits; 60+ incubation-studio team. | Which ventures are controlled, equity-method, revenue-generating, or service clients? |
| MSquared / virtual worlds | Building page references 15,000+ users and asset mobility. | What active worlds, retention, revenue, and SLAs exist? |
| Somnia / blockchain infrastructure | FY2025 update cites Somnia FDV >$1B, 379k wallets, 1B transactions. | How much economics accrue to Improbable versus the foundation/token ecosystem? |
| Open standards/tools | Thanos and MML sites corroborate technical footprint. | What IP is proprietary, open-source, or encumbered by third-party licenses? |
| Product or capability | Missing metric |
|---|---|
| Large-scale virtual-world tech | Production benchmark, cost per concurrent user, uptime, gross margin. |
| Venture studio services | Pricing model, intercompany fees, ownership stakes, realized returns. |
| Somnia ecosystem | Sustainable fees, token ownership, active user retention, compliance posture. |
Architecture is inferred from public descriptions, not a verified systems diagram.
Named public relationships validate some market activity, especially BBC R&D and MLB/Yuga/Somnia signals, but top-customer lists, revenue concentration, supplier spend, and severed relationships are not public.
not publicly verifiable confidence: low
No top-15 customer list was public. Public names are relationship signals, not a ranked revenue schedule.
| Counterparty | Evidence |
|---|---|
| BBC R&D / MAX-R | BBC says performances streamed into a 3D space hosted by project partner Improbable. |
| Major League Baseball | Company says partnership continued with games every Wednesday in September. |
| Yuga Labs | Company announced sale of Imporium to Yuga Labs. |
| Somnia Foundation / ecosystem | Company update says Somnia launched using Improbable-developed technology. |
| Checklist area | Gap |
|---|---|
| Top 15 customers | Customer revenue by application/product for FY2023-FY2025. |
| Revenue concentration >5% | Customer concentration, renewal rates, and dependency on venture-related parties. |
| Top suppliers | Cloud spend, minimum commitments, termination rights, security addenda. |
partially verified confidence: medium
BBC R&D independently validates a technical trial; MLB and Yuga evidence are company-authored; Somnia is central to the 2025 venture update.
not publicly verifiable confidence: low
Revenue by customer and 5% concentration are not public; company revenue volatility increases the importance of customer-level analysis.
not publicly verifiable confidence: low
No severed-relationship schedule was public. Imporium sale to Yuga Labs is a relationship/exit event, not necessarily a severed customer relationship.
partially verified confidence: medium
Only indirect supplier signals were public: cloud providers such as AWS/Google Cloud and the broader technology stack. Supplier spend and commitments are private.
| Area | Missing private material |
|---|---|
| Patents | Patent schedule, assignments, encumbrances, claim maps. |
| Website/IP terms | Customer license, venture IP assignment, OSS policy. |
| Cloud/data suppliers | Cloud agreements, DPAs, SOC/ISO reports, security incidents. |
| Insurance | D&O, E&O, cyber, employer liability, product liability, key-person policies. |
| Material contracts | Executed agreements, termination rights, exclusivity, revenue share, indemnities. |
Improbable’s competitive set spans venture studios, metaverse platforms, Web3 infrastructure, and AI simulation; public evidence supports positioning but not market share or win/loss performance.
partially verified confidence: medium
Improbable competes on technical depth, capital availability, founder support, and named partnerships, but market share and pricing position are not public.
| Segment | Likely competitors or alternatives |
|---|---|
| Venture studio / deep-tech builder | VC studios, accelerators, corporate venture builders, strategic investors. |
| Metaverse / virtual experiences | Game engines, event platforms, Roblox/Fortnite ecosystems, bespoke Unreal/Unity developers. |
| Web3 infrastructure | Other L1/L2 chains, appchains, centralized event tech. |
| AI simulation / supply-chain tools | Digital-twin, simulation, AI planning and enterprise optimization vendors. |
| Strength or weakness | Diligence takeaway |
|---|---|
| Strength: deep capitalization and investor network | Useful for venture-building credibility, but financing terms may be complex. |
| Strength: named technical partners | Strong logos; verify recurring revenue and referenceability. |
| Weakness: volatile reported revenue | Harder to benchmark against conventional SaaS or infrastructure peers. |
| Weakness: Web3/metaverse concentration | Exposure to adoption cycles and token valuation volatility. |
Competitor names were not exhaustively researched; map is segment-oriented.
Go-to-market appears centered on founder sourcing, strategic partnerships, thought leadership, and venture launches; sales productivity, pipeline, quotas, CAC, and marketing budget are not public.
partially verified confidence: medium
Public strategy positions Improbable as a builder of AI, Web3, and metaverse ventures with strategic-partner proof points and updated marketing leadership.
| Motion | Likely objective |
|---|---|
| Founder/venture inbound | Source and incubate deep-tech ventures. |
| Thought leadership / news | Create credibility with founders, partners, and investors. |
| Strategic partnerships | Build anchor use cases and validate venture exits. |
| Indicator | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| CMO appointment | Marketing leadership investment aligns with AI/Web3 repositioning. |
| Open commercial/technical roles | Hiring supports venture/platform operations. |
| Cash capacity | Likely budget ability for near-term venture marketing, but allocation unknown. |
No sales pipeline counts, CAC, quota, or conversion metrics were public.
partially verified confidence: medium
Public major-customer evidence is logo/relationship-based rather than pipeline or account-development data.
partially verified confidence: medium
New business likely comes from founder inbound/outbound, portfolio launches, strategic partnerships, and investor networks described by the Building page.
not publicly verifiable confidence: low
No sales-force model, compensation, quota, sales cycle, or hiring plan is public; open roles provide only indirect capacity signals.
This figure should not be read as a layoff chart without internal headcount bridge.
partially verified confidence: medium
Cash balance suggests capacity, but marketing and venture budgets are not public. Planned $17M venture investment provides an outer signal, not a GTM budget.
R&D evidence points to a technically ambitious platform spanning virtual-world scale, Web3, MML/Thanos, and simulation ventures; benchmark, security, roadmap, and cost data remain private.
partially verified confidence: medium
Public data show a 60+ incubation studio and leadership/role signals, but not a detailed R&D org chart, allocation, or budget.
| Asset or team | R D question |
|---|---|
| Incubation studio | Function mix, seniority, and allocation by venture. |
| Networking/rendering/spatial audio | Benchmark proof, roadmap, cloud cost, and production reliability. |
| Blockchain / Somnia | Protocol ownership, security audits, mainnet reliability, token economics. |
| MML / Thanos | Adoption, licenses, governance, and maintainers. |
partially verified confidence: medium
Company expects to launch multiple ventures annually and invest $17M in 10+ ventures; Somnia and AI/Web3 ventures are highlighted, but cost/timing/status by product is not public.
Founder leadership, officer/PSC records, selected management bios, and people-count signals are public; current org chart, compensation, equity incentives, employee-relations issues, and turnover are not public.
partially verified confidence: medium
No full org chart is public. Companies House and the About page identify directors, founder, and selected executives; PSC records identify significant-control parties.
| Person or entity | Evidence |
|---|---|
| Herman Narula | About page bio and Companies House officer/PSC records. |
| Robert Whitehead | About page and Companies House officer record. |
| SVF Holdings (UK) LLP | Companies House PSC record. |
| Robin Šmíd / Mark Shepherd / CMO appointment | About and CMO announcement. |
| Signal | Period or context |
|---|---|
| Employees | FY2022 company update. |
| People across group | FY2023 modern slavery group statement. |
| Incubation studio team | Current about page. |
| Open roles | Careers page point-in-time. |
Signals are not directly comparable; request a reconciled monthly headcount bridge.
Not a full board or management org chart.
partially verified confidence: medium
Public headcount signals are inconsistent by scope: ~650 FY2022 employees, >800 FY2023 group people, and 60+ current incubation-studio team.
partially verified confidence: medium
About page provides biographies for founder and selected executives; Companies House provides officer records, but complete CVs, tenure, and references are not public.
not publicly verifiable confidence: low
No employment agreements, compensation summaries, or benefit plans were public.
not publicly verifiable confidence: low
No option pool, EMI plan, RSU, phantom equity, or venture-level incentive plan was public.
inconclusive confidence: low
No employee-relations problems were found in reviewed public sources, but no tribunal/search/interview work was performed.
| Area | Status |
|---|---|
| Entity status | verified |
| Accounts filings | verified |
| Charges | verified |
| Litigation | inconclusive |
| Modern slavery / workforce compliance | verified |
not publicly verifiable confidence: low
Turnover data and retention benefits are not public. Headcount signal changes make turnover/restructuring diligence high priority.
Companies House/legal pages verify active status, filings, charges, basic privacy/terms, and patent-count signal, but litigation, regulatory, contract, insurance, and IP ownership require private legal diligence.
inconclusive confidence: low
No pending lawsuits against Improbable were found in reviewed public sources, but searches were not comprehensive.
inconclusive confidence: low
No company-initiated lawsuits were found in reviewed public sources; comprehensive court database searches were not completed.
partially verified confidence: medium
No environmental/safety liabilities were found publicly; modern slavery statement provides supply-chain/people compliance posture.
partially verified confidence: low
CB Insights reports 27 patents and public terms assert website IP, but material IP schedule, assignments, licenses, OSS, trademarks, and venture IP split were not verified.
not publicly verifiable confidence: low
Insurance coverage is not public; material exposures likely include cyber/privacy, live immersive events, Web3/regulatory, D&O, E&O, employer liability, and IP.
not publicly verifiable confidence: low
Public materials identify cloud providers and named partner relationships, but no material customer, supplier, investor, venture, or service contracts are public.
inconclusive confidence: low
No regulatory agency problems were found in reviewed public sources; however, Web3, privacy, employment, and international operations require counsel confirmation.
| ID | Claim | Status | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|
| EC-001 | Improbable Worlds Limited is an active UK private limited company incorporated on 16 May 2012. | verified high | SRC-003 |
| EC-002 | Improbable remains listed by CB Insights as a unicorn valued at $3.36B with a 5/11/2017 unicorn date. | verified high | SRC-001 |
| EC-003 | CB Insights profiles Improbable as alive, founded in 2012, London-based, with $865.95M total raised and a $112.02M latest round. | partially verified medium | SRC-002 |
| EC-004 | Public control records identify Herman Narula and SVF Holdings (UK) LLP as persons with significant control, while Companies House officers list current directors. | verified high | SRC-005SRC-006 |
| EC-005 | Company milestone pages describe major financing events including a $20M 2015 investment and a $502M 2017 SoftBank-led funding round. | partially verified medium | SRC-008 |
| EC-006 | Improbable reported profitability in 2023, with £66M revenue, £11M profit, and £185M cash. | partially verified medium | SRC-017 |
| EC-007 | Improbable reported 2022 revenue of £78M, losses reduced to £19M, cash of £140M, and around 650 employees. | partially verified medium | SRC-018 |
| EC-008 | Improbable reported FY2024 group revenue of £10M, cash of £162.8M, 12 ventures, Somnia FDV over $1B, 379,000 wallets, 1B transactions to 27 October 2025, and plans to invest $17M in 10+ ventures. | partially verified medium | SRC-019 |
| EC-009 | Improbable describes itself as a 13-year tech venture builder with 17 ventures including 7 exits and a 60+ person incubation studio. | partially verified medium | SRC-008 |
| EC-010 | Improbable homepage language states nine ventures launched and six exits, which conflicts with or predates the About page count of 17 ventures including 7 exits. | partially verified medium | SRC-009SRC-008 |
| EC-011 | The Building page describes Improbable venture-building support across funding, product and engineering, people, legal, partnerships, operations, and deep technology. | verified high | SRC-011 |
| EC-012 | Improbable claims technical breakthroughs in high-scale networking, rendering, spatial audio, blockchain, Thanos, and MML. | partially verified medium | SRC-011SRC-022SRC-023 |
| EC-013 | BBC R&D independently reported that a MAX-R music trial used an Improbable-hosted 3D space/testbed and Improbable platform users could join as avatars. | verified high | SRC-021 |
| EC-014 | Improbable announced continuing work with Major League Baseball on the Virtual Ballpark, including September weekly baseball games. | partially verified medium | SRC-020 |
| EC-015 | Improbable announced the sale of Imporium to long-standing partner Yuga Labs. | partially verified medium | SRC-024 |
| EC-016 | Improbable careers pages showed open roles including treasury, front-end, platform engineering for Somnia, and marketing, indicating continuing hiring around venture/platform needs. | partially verified medium | SRC-013 |
| EC-017 | Improbable privacy materials identify Cyber Essentials Plus and cloud providers such as Google Cloud and AWS. | verified high | SRC-014 |
| EC-018 | Improbable website terms state website content belongs to Improbable and terms are governed by English law. | verified high | SRC-015 |
| EC-019 | The modern slavery statement described more than 800 people across UK and international operations for FY2023 and was approved by Herman Narula. | verified high | SRC-016 |
| EC-020 | Companies House charge records show 2024 HSBC Innovation Banking charges, with two satisfied in 2025 and one outstanding at the time reviewed. | verified high | SRC-007 |
| EC-021 | No material pending litigation was found in the public sources reviewed, but no comprehensive litigation search was performed. | inconclusive low | SRC-003SRC-015 |
| EC-022 | CB Insights reports 27 patents for Improbable, but material patent details and ownership chains were not verified. | partially verified low | SRC-002 |
| EC-023 | Improbable’s venture model includes funding, strategic support, legal, operations, product, engineering, people, and partnerships support to portfolio companies. | verified high | SRC-011 |
| EC-024 | Core diligence items such as complete financial statements, projections, cap table, customer revenue concentration, backlog, sales productivity, compensation, and insurance are not publicly verifiable from reviewed sources. | not publicly verifiable high | SRC-003SRC-008SRC-019 |
| EC-025 | Improbable appears to meet private-unicorn screening criteria: active private company, no IPO or acquisition found, and CB Insights valuation above $1B. | verified high | SRC-001SRC-002SRC-003 |
| EC-026 | Improbable’s 2025 messaging deepens focus on AI and Web3 and includes appointment of a former Revolut/Bitpanda executive as CMO. | partially verified medium | SRC-025 |
| EC-027 | BBC, Thanos, and MML evidence corroborate that Improbable’s technology stack extends beyond a single consumer product into infrastructure and standards for virtual worlds. | partially verified medium | SRC-021SRC-022SRC-023SRC-011 |
| EC-028 | Companies House filing-history snippets show accounts activity through the 2024 reporting period. | verified high | SRC-004 |
This report is a public-evidence diligence snapshot, not investment advice. Important financial, legal, technical, and contractual facts remain non-public and should be verified directly with management and primary documents before any investment decision.