critical high likelihood
R-001: Net-electricity and plant-level technical proof risk
Helion has public technical milestones, but no public evidence of commercial plant-level net electricity, and the Polaris page reframes earlier “net electricity” language.
Diligence request: Independent technical review of test data, energy accounting, diagnostics, reliability, fuel-cycle model, and plant commissioning plan.
high high likelihood
R-002: 2028 Microsoft/Orion delivery schedule risk
The first plant target requires successful machine scale-up, site construction, permitting, interconnection, customer acceptance, and operations by a public deadline.
Diligence request: Review integrated master schedule, permit matrix, interconnection studies, EPC plan, critical path, contingency budget, and Microsoft contract remedies.
high high likelihood
R-003: Private financials and valuation opacity
Public funding and valuation anchors do not reveal audited financials, runway, burn, debt, unit economics, or current capitalization.
Diligence request: Obtain audited statements, management accounts, cash/debt schedule, capex budget, unit economics, cap table, and financing documents.
high medium likelihood
R-004: Manufacturing scale-up and capex overrun risk
Series F proceeds are meant to scale U.S. manufacturing of capacitors, magnets, and semiconductors, but yield/cost/supplier readiness are private.
Diligence request: Review factory capex, supplier contracts, quality system, BOM, yield/failure data, inventory, and alternates.
high medium likelihood
R-005: Customer concentration and material-contract terms risk
Microsoft and Nucor are valuable public signals, but contract economics, enforceability, cancellation, penalties, and acceptance criteria are not public.
Diligence request: Review executed contracts, amendments, pricing, deposits, credit support, termination rights, liquidated damages, and customer references.
high medium likelihood
R-006: Fusion regulatory and site permitting risk
NRC indicates commercial fusion is regulated and no U.S. fusion machine commercially provides grid power; Helion still must navigate applicable plant/site approvals.
Diligence request: Counsel review of regulator jurisdiction, licenses/permits, SEPA/CUP conditions, environmental commitments, tritium/materials controls, and open agency items.
high medium likelihood
R-007: D-He-3 fuel-cycle and isotope handling risk
Helion’s long-term fuel cycle depends on rare helium-3 production and high-temperature D-He-3 operation, with tritium/deuterium validation along the way.
Diligence request: Review fuel mass balance, isotope inventory, tritium permits/procedures, supply contracts, waste/shielding plan, and sensitivity analysis.
medium medium likelihood
R-008: Key-person, recruiting, and safety-culture risk
Public leadership is credible, but headcount, attrition, compensation, open critical roles, and employee-relations/safety data are not public.
Diligence request: Request full org chart, headcount history/plan, attrition, key-person plan, employment agreements, compensation, equity plans, OSHA/safety records, and culture data.