high high likelihood
R-001: Financial opacity and quality-of-earnings gap
Epic's public profile verifies funding and scale, but audited revenue, EBITDA, cash burn, product-line margin, debt, subsidies, and runway are not public.
Diligence request: Require audited financials, monthly management accounts, product-line P&Ls, cash/debt schedule, and subsidy commitments.
high medium likelihood
R-002: User-scale metrics may not translate into durable monetization
Public account, user, and event metrics are enormous but not normalized for active users, payer conversion, retention, age mix, refunds, or contribution margin.
Diligence request: Obtain cohort metrics, payer conversion, ARPPU, retention, refunds, chargebacks, and product-level contribution margin.
high medium likelihood
R-003: Child privacy, billing, and dark-pattern compliance
FTC settlements over COPPA/privacy and unwanted charges create continuing controls, audit, product-design, and reputational risk.
Diligence request: Review FTC compliance binders, independent audit reports, age-gating controls, billing UX approval process, complaints, and refund trends.
high medium likelihood
R-004: App-store litigation and mobile distribution dependence
Apple and Google disputes can affect mobile access, payment economics, legal expense, fee awards, and compliance obligations.
Diligence request: Obtain counsel letters, docket schedule, reserves, insurance coverage, settlement terms, and mobile revenue sensitivity.
medium high likelihood
R-005: Developer-friendly economics may pressure margins
Store 88 percent publisher share, subsidies, free games, creator payouts, and marketplace costs can create low-margin growth.
Diligence request: Reconcile public take rates to net contribution margin by product and cohort.
medium high likelihood
R-006: Current valuation and cap-table terms are not public
Public sources provide historic valuation anchors, but current valuation, preferences, liquidation waterfall, debt, option pool, and Disney final terms are unknown.
Diligence request: Review cap table, investor rights, debt schedule, option pool, securities purchase agreements, and liquidation waterfall.
medium medium likelihood
R-008: Workforce restructuring and retention uncertainty
Reported 2023 layoffs and absent current headcount detail create questions about morale, execution capacity, retention, and cost structure.
Diligence request: Review HRIS exports, attrition, recruiting plan, compensation bands, retention grants, and post-layoff productivity metrics.
medium medium likelihood
R-009: IP, marketplace, and technical defensibility gaps
Unreal, Fab, Fortnite UGC, and marketplace assets create valuable IP and technology, but assignments, encumbrances, takedowns, open-source compliance, and disputes are private.
Diligence request: Obtain IP schedule, patent assignments, open-source scans, takedown logs, indemnity claims, and custom license agreements.