high high likelihood
R1: Financial quality and unit economics not public
Audited financials, revenue, gross margin, burn, runway, CAC/payback, and retention are not publicly verifiable.
Diligence request: Request audited financials, management accounts, revenue bridge, gross margin, burn, runway, and debt schedule.
high high likelihood
R3: Customer concentration and retention unknown
Public customer proof does not disclose customer-level revenue, renewal rates, churn, backlog, or contract terms.
Diligence request: Request customer export, top contracts, renewal/churn cohorts, and reference calls.
high medium likelihood
R2: Cap table and valuation support opaque
Public valuation does not reveal preferred terms, investor rights, secondary trades, option pool, or exit waterfall.
Diligence request: Request cap table, financing documents, investor-rights agreements, 409A, and secondary/tender materials.
high medium likelihood
R6: Operational dependency risk
Power procurement, interconnection, data-center construction, GPU/server supply, and cloud operations create high execution and supplier dependency risk.
Diligence request: Request supplier/partner contracts, SLAs, redundancy plans, concentration analysis, and incident history.
high medium likelihood
R7: Privacy, security, or regulatory exposure
Crusoe touches energy sourcing, flaring mitigation, data-center permitting, sustainability claims, privacy, and cloud service obligations.
Diligence request: Request regulatory matrix, policies, audits, incident logs, legal schedule, and compliance testing.
medium high likelihood
R4: Competitive pricing and differentiation pressure
The AI cloud infrastructure, GPU compute, data centers, and energy-backed compute market includes well-capitalized incumbents and specialists.
Diligence request: Request win/loss, pricing benchmarks, churn reasons, and product usage data.
medium medium likelihood
R5: Product and roadmap execution risk
Public product scope is broad, but roadmap delivery, release quality, implementation economics, and support load are private.
Diligence request: Request roadmap, release history, support metrics, implementation economics, and customer adoption cohorts.
medium medium likelihood
R8: Hiring, culture, and key-person risk not public
Public hiring/careers evidence does not disclose function mix, attrition, compensation, retention, or succession planning.
Diligence request: Request HRIS census, attrition, compensation, offer acceptance, engagement surveys, and key-person agreements.