critical medium likelihood
R-004: Certification, safety, engine, noise, and flight-test execution
Overture and Symphony require FAA/EASA certification; XB-1 milestones do not eliminate certification, safety, engine durability, noise, and emissions risk.
Diligence request: Run aerospace technical diligence on certification basis, safety analyses, engine tests, acoustic data, and regulator correspondence.
high high likelihood
R-001: Capital intensity, burn, and valuation opacity
Aircraft, engine, Superfactory, and turbine programs are capital-intensive; financials, cash, debt, and cap table are private.
Diligence request: Request financials, cash, debt, burn, program cost-to-complete, cap table, financing docs, and valuation support.
high medium likelihood
R-002: Superpower turbine commercialization and funding bridge risk
Boom's public funding narrative depends on Superpower backlog and revenue helping fund Overture certification.
Diligence request: Review Crusoe contract, backlog terms, turbine margins, production plan, warranty obligations, and cash-flow bridge.
high medium likelihood
R-005: Airline order-book quality and conversion
Public order-book claims may include conditional orders, options, and pre-orders that depend on certification, economics, and delivery timing.
Diligence request: Review contracts, deposits, pricing, conditions, cancellation rights, delivery schedule, and airline reference calls.
high medium likelihood
R-006: Supplier, manufacturing, and production ramp
Boom depends on many suppliers, new engine production, tooling, Superfactory readiness, and quality systems.
Diligence request: Review supplier contracts, long-lead schedule, quality plans, tooling readiness, capex, and production ramp analysis.
high unknown likelihood
R-008: Talent, leadership, and safety culture opacity
Current headcount, executive depth, turnover, compensation, and safety culture are not public for a safety-critical aerospace company.
Diligence request: Request org chart, key-person analysis, headcount, attrition, compensation, safety culture, and employee-relations records.
high unknown likelihood
R-009: Legal, regulatory, IP, insurance, and contract opacity
Litigation, certification correspondence, IP ownership, supplier/customer contracts, insurance, EHS, and product liability are not publicly scheduled.
Diligence request: Request counsel letter, litigation/regulatory schedule, IP schedule, insurance, material contracts, and certification correspondence.
medium medium likelihood
R-007: Strategic focus risk from Superpower expansion
Adding AI data center turbines may provide funding but can distract from aviation certification and manufacturing.
Diligence request: Review resource allocation, management cadence, roadmap, and cash contribution by Superpower versus aviation programs.